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Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Roll -- Yield

The roll yield is the yield that a futures investor captures when their futures contract converges (or rolls up) to the spot price in a backwardated futures market. The spot price can stay constant, but the investor will still earn returns from buying discounted futures contracts, which continuously roll up to the constant spot price.

For example, suppose the spot price of oil is $58 and the market is inverted because inventories are relatively low. This means the first futures price might be at $57 and the next contract at $56. You go long the front contract as described above. Now suppose a few weeks pass and nothing happens to the spot price.

The futures contract you own moves toward the spot price as delivery approaches, and we can assume the spread between the futures stays at a dollar. You sell your maturing futures near the $58 spot price and buy the next future for around $57.

Note that in an inverted market you make money from what is called "the roll yield" even if commodity prices remain unchanged.

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